The Clinton administration all along has had one modest aim in Bosnia: in the words of a U.S. official, “Above all, don’t make things worse.” But when only one in three airdrops, or maybe one in two, reached the besieged Muslims it was supposed to help, U.S. policy seemed at the same time hesitant and overstretched. White House aides say that paradox reflects their boss’s personal conflict. “In his heart, Bill Clinton thinks all problems can be solved,” said one adviser. But his aides, and his own intellect, tell him that “Some problems, you just have to live with.” The airdrops represented a compromise between the emotional and rational sides of the president. In terms of humanitarian relief, they clearly had marginal value. They may have bought the president time-but time to do what? U.N.-sponsored negotiations between the warring parties have been inching forward agonizingly, if at all. The airdrops didn’t make things worse, but clearly Clinton finds it painful, and unbecoming to a superpower, not to make things better.
Washington’s next steps will not be much more dramatic. The Defense Department is planning to continue the airdrops, but-again, cautiously-is rejiggering the formula. The planes will target new areas, such as the mountains around Cerska, where the Serbs overran several hamlets last week and sent thousands of refugees fleeing into the surrounding woods. The pilots will try to target these refugees, although that will present quite a technical challenge indeed. The U.S. Air Force is beginning to fly more planes and pack fewer pallets into each of them to push the crates out faster.
Continuing the airdrops will not get rid of the big question still dogging the Clinton administration: whether to commit ground troops-and when and how. Secretary of State Warren Christopher has already made clear that no American contingents will be sent into the former Yugoslavia until the warring sides negotiate some kind of settlement. But even though negotiations among Serbs, Muslims and Croats stalled last week, Washington was already talking with the Europeans about what that peacekeeping force would look like. According to diplomatic sources, it would consist of 30,000 to 40,000 ground troops, of which 10,000 to 15,000 would come from the United States. That means effectively committing three infantry divisions: one in action-and two more to rotate in and out as needed.
Committing troops is still a long way off. In the meantime, the White House concentrated on persuading the Europeans to enforce tougher sanctions against Serbia. It also leaned hard on the Russians, who have, despite opposition from Slav nationalists at home, agreed to participate in the new airdrops. But this diplomatic success looked like a frail reed last week. Bill Clinton, with both his heart and his head, is still searching.
